Eight Republican candidates participated in the party’s first primary debate in August. But the stage could feature fewer contenders when the GOP holds its next debate later this month.

The Voting Rights Act of 1965 was supposed to settle the debate over race, redistricting and representation. Instead, it started new ones. Since the act prohibits states from reducing a minority ...

When Theresa M. started attending a support group for breast cancer survivors, she didn’t expect political issues like abortion to be a part of the conversation. But since last summer, when her ...

Only the most recent poll conducted by each pollster/sponsor combination is included in order to avoid particularly prolific pollsters from skewing the average. Includes only polls that ask about ...

The vanguard of American conservatism is Florida — at least, according to its governor. The state is on “the front lines in the battle for freedom,” Gov. Ron DeSantis said to the Florida ...

Today, FiveThirtyEight is launching our endorsement tracker for the 2024 Republican presidential primary. And while it’s early in the primary season, former President Donald Trump currently has ...

America’s cities are some of its most solidly Democratic areas — but that doesn’t mean they are solidly liberal. Over the past two years, the mayoral elections in our two biggest cities have ...

Projections as of March 24, 2023. Elo wins are based on a regressed version of 2022′s final Elo ratings.

Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited. There is a lot to talk about here, clearly! But let’s start with the basics — what the heck is going ...

Includes polls of special elections and runoffs. Excludes polls from pollsters that are banned by FiveThirtyEight, New Hampshire primary polls taken before the Iowa caucuses and other states ...

Longtime readers of FiveThirtyEight are probably familiar with our pollster ratings: letter grades that we assign to pollsters based on their historical accuracy and transparency. Since 2008, we ...

Inflation isn’t under control, and we’re heading for a recession. Except, wait: The latest jobs report indicates that the labor market is healthier than it’s been in years. So maybe we’re ...