FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis - hard numbers - to tell compelling stories about elections, politics and American society.

Monica Potts is a senior politics reporter at FiveThirtyEight.

Joe Biden is officially running for a second term. What are his chances in the Democratic primary and the general election?

Longtime readers of FiveThirtyEight are probably familiar with our pollster ratings: letter grades that we assign to pollsters based on their historical accuracy and transparency. Since 2008, we ...

Economy Are We Headed For A Recession Or Not? Why our usual economic indicators aren't pointing in a clear direction.

California doesn’t just have some of the nation’s strictest gun laws and lowest gun death rates, it’s also maybe the best state to study gun laws in, said Dr. Garen Wintemute, director of ...

Let’s get this out of the way up front: There was a wide gap between the perception of how well polls and data-driven forecasts did in 2022 and the reality of h… ...

2024 Republican Primary How Donald Trump’s Unusual Presidential Comeback Could Go History presents three possible paths.

Even with an additional senator going into 2023, the 2024 map is still so bad for Democrats that keeping the Senate for years to come will be a fairly tough order. The party’s prospects might ...

Live election results and coverage of the Georgia Senate runoff on Dec. 6, 2022 between Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock and Republican Herschel Walker.

When the 2022 World Cup made its debut on Sunday, it kicked off one of the most significant in-game uses of technology in sports history. All tournament long, m… ...

2024 Election Why Trump Is Favored To Win The 2024 Republican Presidential Primary The polls, and history, are on his side.